2008-02-10 - Airbus market forecastAirbus foresees demand for some 24,300 aircraft in the next 20 years
Neue Marktprognose von Airbus vorgestellt<br /> According to its latest Global Market Forecast, Airbus foresees a demand for some 24,300 new passenger and freighter aircraft valued at US$ 2.8 trillion between now and 2026.
This will create an average annual delivery of some 1,215 aircraft, up from the previously forecast 1,130 average deliveries in the last GMF. Demand will drive the need for more fuel and eco-efficient airliners to cope with traffic growth and the need to replace older generation less efficient aircraft. By 2026, the fuel burn of the average world fleet is expected to be at three litres per 100 passenger kilometres, or what the A380 already delivers today.
Passenger traffic is expected to grow at an average rate of 4.9 per cent per year, leading to a near threefold increase in the forecast period and will remain resilient to the cyclical effects of the industry. Part of the forecast traffic increase will be absorbed by higher load factors as well as use of bigger more productive equipment and increased frequencies. Even so, the world's airlines will more than double their passenger aircraft fleets of 100 seats or more, from some 13,300 today to some 28,550 in 2026. This increase together with a forecast replacement of close to 8,150 older aircraft means a total of nearly 23,400 new passenger aircraft worth US$ 2.6 trillion will be needed.
Air freight is forecast to grow even faster, with freight tonne kilometres (FTKs) increasing annually by 5.8 per cent. Combined with fleet renewal, this will create demand for some 3,800 freighter deliveries. Nearly 900 of them, worth US $ 200 billion, will be new factory built.
More than 16,600 aircraft or 68 per cent of all deliveries in the next 20 years will be single-aisle aircraft. Worth some US$ 1,140 billion, this represents 40 per cent of all aircraft deliveries by value. The demand for these aircraft will be in large part from North America with 32 per cent of the deliveries, followed by Asia-Pacific (26 per cent), Europe (25 per cent) and the rest of the world 17 per cent.