2008-11-10 - Boeing Cargo ForecastBoeing sees contiunued cargo growth
Frachtverkehrswachstum prognostiziert<br /> Boeing said that world air cargo growth will expand at a 5.8 percent annual rate over the next two decades, with worldwide air freight traffic tripling through 2027, according to Boeing's World Air Cargo Forecast 2008/2009.
Air cargo traffic will grow over the long term despite current near-term market weakness and worldwide economic uncertainty. The industry has shown strong recoveries from previous economic downturns such as the Asian economic crisis, the 9/11 attacks and the SARS outbreak.
"Our research tells us that long-term economic growth, freighter fleet renewal and moderating jet fuel prices will stimulate air cargo traffic growth," said Randy Tinseth, vice president, Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "These positive prospects will prevail despite the industry's concerns about our current economic challenges. "World GDP is projected to average just higher than 3 percent during the next 20 years," Tinseth said. "Asian production fundamentals -- including abundant raw materials and low-cost labor -- remain solid, and China will remain a source of strong economic growth with substantial industrialization and related investment."
Cargo tends to be at the forefront of increased liberalization of air services, which is a driver of economic growth. Asian air cargo market growth will continue to lead all global traffic routes. Domestic Chinese and intra-Asian markets will grow 9.9 percent and 8.1 percent per year, respectively. Asia-related markets will experience growth in excess of the global average. More than 75 percent of the 3,360 freighters joining the fleet -- 2,500 airplanes -- will come from passenger-to-freighter modifications, while 860 will be new production freighters.