2008-10-06 - Honeywell Bizjet forecastHoneywell Business Aviation Outlook forecasts $300 billion in sales
Geschäftsreisejet-Prognose von Honeywell<br /> In its 17 th annual Business Aviation Outlook, Honeywell forecasts delivery of approximately 17,000 new business aircraft by manufacturers from 2008 through 2018, generating expected industry sales of $300 billion. 2008 marks the fifth consecutive year of industry expansion since the last industry slowdown.
Year-to-date, the number of aircraft delivered is up almost 22 percent compared with the same point in 2007, and industry-wide new jet delivery revenues are also up just over 22 percent. For 2008, Honeywell Aerospace forecasts deliveries of nearly 1,200 new business jets for the first time in history, up from 1020 in 2007, a 15 percent increase, despite an uncertain economy in North America. Deliveries in 2009 are expected to range between 1,300 and 1,400 jets depending on how quickly several new programs are able to ramp up.
Year to date new jet orders have risen roughly 20-25 percent over first half 2007 levels, however a sizable portion of these orders are for new models entering service in 2012 and beyond. Honeywell believes that order intake will moderate to more sustainable levels in the second half of 2008 and into 2009. Nevertheless, available measures of total industry book-to-bill ratio are still running at or over two-to-one so far in 2008.
While the overall outlook for the OEM portion of the industry remains positive, recent data from the FAA and Euro-control points to reduced business aircraft flight activity in the U.S. and Europe for the rest of this year and potentially impacting 2009 flight operations. Operators appear to be reacting to economic pressures and unexpected fuel price increases by reducing activity and in some cases putting aircraft up for sale. The 2008 survey indicates record aircraft deliveries will continue into 2009 with a likely peak next year or in 2010. North American purchase expectations improved slightly, but expectations in several other world regions softened to some extent. In total, respondents to this year's survey said they expect to replace or expand the equivalent of about 32 percent of their fleets over the next five years, within one percent of the level recorded in the 2007 survey.
In North America, 2008 survey respondents said they expect to replace or expand about 25 percent of their fleets during the next five years. "Despite slower economic growth and recent credit and stock market fluctuations, survey purchase plans gained five points over their 2007 levels, reflecting the value and productivity these aircraft deliver in today's more challenging business environments," Wilson said
In other regions, five-year purchase expectations were mixed. In Europe, purchase expectations of 41 percent were off about seven points compared with record levels posted in 2007, but are well above the 25 percent-or-better levels that have prevailed between 2001 and 2006. "Eight consecutive years of strong purchase intentions in Europe is evidence of the value operators place in using business jets," Wilson said.
Based on new jet models mentioned by survey respondents, the 2008 Business Aviation Outlook projects fairly balanced demand growth across most business jet segments over the next five years. Medium and medium-large aircraft together account for about 29 percent of the projected demand through 2013, with the medium-large segment interest up several points over the 2007 share. Light and light-medium aircraft make up about 23 percent of projected five- year demand. The next largest grouping is in long-range and ultra long-range aircraft at 21 percent. Sustained interest in the long and ultra long-range segment has been present for several years and reflects increased need for aircraft capable of trans-Pacific flights, as well as the growth in demand in other regions requiring more long range operations as trade and economic growth flourish.